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Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions 2011 report

Jos G.J. Olivier, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Jeroen A.H.W. Peters, Julian Wilson, 2011

This paper discusses the method and results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2010 and updates the previous assessment of CO2 emissions up to and including 2009 (Olivier and Peters, 2010). This assessment includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources.

After a short description of the methods used, present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources. To provide a broader context of the regional trends and the achievements of the Kyoto Protocol countries also assesing the global CO2 emissions trend of the last four decades, where looked at emission trends per main sector rather than by country or region. As 2010 is the central year of the five-year Kyoto Protocol target period of 2008-2012, compared the CO2 emissions trend of industrialised countries of the last two decades with the targets set out in the protocol. From the results are drawed some conclusions for further mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions based on the large observed differences between countries in their energy mix and the historical rate of change in the mix.

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